Bellingham to Wirtz: The best U21 outfield stars this season

When Lamine Yamal was born, Rihanna’s “Umbrella” was the No. 1 song in America and, basically, the world. Pau Cubarsí was all of 6 months old at the time.

Yamal and Cubarsi are 16 and 17 years old, respectively — and they’ve been two of Barcelona’s better players in recent weeks and months. With Yamal having already made four appearances for the Spain national team, Cubarsi will likely make his debut on either Friday (against Colombia) or Tuesday (against Brazil). Against Brazil, they might face Endrick (17 and bound for Real Madrid this summer), or Girona’s Sávio (19) and Yan Couto (21).

Florian Wirtz (20, Bayer Leverkusen) and Jamal Musiala (21, Bayern Munich) might be the two most important players on the Germany national team. Warren Zaïre-Emery (18, Paris Saint-Germain) made his national team debut for France last November and scored. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) has already made a €100 million transfer and more than 25 appearances for England and he won’t turn 21 until late June.

This is appalling. What had you done by age 21? Anyone who clicked on this piece should feel older and more decrepit for it. But throughout both world soccer and European club soccer, the youths are taking over.

So, who’s doing the best job of that in 2023-24? To answer that question, we’re going to use a pair of advanced stats — xG and xPVA — and apply them to players aged 21 or under right now.

The former you’ve probably heard of by now: xG, or expected goals, is derived from StatsPerform’s model for how likely a shot attempt is to go into the net. A penalty is about 79% likely to go in, so it’s worth 0.79 xG while a long-range bomb with half the defense in front of you is more like 1%, or 0.01.

The other measure, xPVA, isn’t quite as widespread yet. Based again on StatsPerform’s models, it looks at the expected value added for a given possession by just about any player action, like passes, 1v1s, etc. It rewards ball progression — it is essentially an attempt to measure everything that happens before the shot, and it rewards players like Manchester City’s dribble-dominant Jérémy Doku (+8.9 xPVA, most in the Europe’s “Big Five” top leagues) and extreme ball progressors like Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (+8.0), Newcastle’s Kieran Trippier (+7.1) and Wirtz (+7.0).

Combine it with the shot value itself, and you’ve got a decent value measure, yeah?

The list of xG+xPVA leaders in Europe’s Big Five leagues in 2023-24 is basically a “best players in the world” list: Bayern’s Harry Kane currently leads the way with 28.6 combined xG and xPVA, followed by Kylian Mbappé (22.6), Erling Haaland (22.0), Mohamed Salah (21.5), Loïs Openda (20.4), Bukayo Saka (19.6) and Lautaro Martínez (17.9). It is an attacker-friendly measure, to be sure, but it tells a pretty interesting story.

What can xG+xPVA tell us about the players aged 21 or under? It may be an attack-focused measure, but let’s look at the leaders at each outfield position — goalkeepers obviously don’t qualify here — on the pitch.

Beier wasn’t exactly an unknown heading into 2023-24 — at 18, he scored a pair of goals against Gent during Hoffenheim’s 2020-21 Europa League run, and he scored 15 goals over a two-year loan with Hannover 96 in the German second division. But it’s fair to suggest that not even the most optimistic projections had him potentially scoring 15-plus goals in his first full Bundesliga season.

In 1,799 league minutes this season, the 21-year old Beier has scored 12 goals and earned a call-up to the Germany national team. He is already among the best counter-attacking forwards in Europe. Only five players from Europe’s Big Five of any age have scored at least four goals from counters this season: Bayern’s Harry Kane, PSG’s Kylian Mbappe, Deportivo Alaves’ Samu Omorodion and Montpellier’s Akor Adams have four, and only Beier has five. Two came in a stunning comeback and 3-2 win over Borussia Dortmund in late February.

Beier’s scoring numbers are likely running a little hot — those 12 goals have come from shots worth 9.2 xG — and he’s primarily a shots-only forward right now. Of the five 21-and-under players with at least 10 league goals this season, he has the fewest assists (one) and by far the fewest chances created (14). But his presence on this list tells you he’s still producing at a pretty special level for a 21-year old in a major league.

Backup: Samu Omorodion, Deportivo Alaves (11.5)

The xG and xPVA combination was made for Florian Wirtz. I was surprised he wasn’t first overall in the 21-and-under department, honestly. He is almost impossible to dispossess, and his decision-making has been impeccable during Bayer Leverkusen’s ongoing run for both a treble (Bundesliga, Europa League, DFB-Pokal) and an unbeaten season. He has 11 goals and 17 assists from 87 chances created in all competitions, and within the Bundesliga he is first in xPVA (7.0) — second in xPVA from passing, sixth in xPVA from take-ons; he’s also third in assists (10) and fourth in progressive carries (255).

Wirtz is as good as anyone at bringing the ball into dangerous areas — it’s unique to find someone this prolific in the progressive carries department and also elite in terms of actual goals and assists.

(Source: TruMedia)

After a recent downturn, the success of the German national team might be dictated entirely by the unlocking of Wirtz at the international level. Since returning from an ACL tear, he’s played 555 minutes over 10 matches for Germany, and he has managed no goals and only two assists from 12 chances created. But when he produces, Germany tends to look great: He has produced more than 0.25 combined xG and xA (expected assists) three times in this span, and Germany went unbeaten in the three (wins over France and Peru and a draw with Mexico). In his seven less productive appearances, they’ve managed just one win, one draw and five losses.

If the Leverkusen version of Wirtz shows up at the Euros, Germany could contend.

Backup: Xavi Simons, RB Leipzig (11.5)

Only three players in the Big Five leagues have combined at least 10 goals with at least 150 progressive passes this season. One is Jude Bellingham, probably the best 21-and-under player on Earth. Another is Phil Foden, recently proclaimed by Pep Guardiola as the best player in the Premier League. The third? Matias Soule.

That’s pretty fantastic company if you’re an attacker.

Meanwhile, only six players in the Big Five have combined at least 240 progressive carries and 170 progressive passes with at least 11 combined goals and assists: Arsenal’s Declan Rice, Manchester City’s Rodri and Barcelona’s Ilkay Gündogan — elite midfielders, all — plus Brighton’s Pascal Gross, Wirtz … and Soule.

When stats can tie you to both Rodri and Bellingham, you’re having one of the most uniquely awesome seasons on record. And for Soule, that’s coming as a 20-year-old playing on a relegation-caliber Serie A club.

Put another way, Soule has out-Wirtz’d Wirtz this season, boasting the highest combined xG+xPVA of any 21-and-under player in the Big Five leagues. He leads Frosinone in goals, shot attempts, shots on goal and xG, plus chances created, expected assists, progressive carries and progressive passes. Oh yeah, and he’s second in ball recoveries and second in total touches. It’s like he takes the ball from the other team, advances the ball by himself, passes the ball to himself and scores.

After recording 420 league minutes for Juventus last season, Soule was a breakout star at last year’s U-20 World Cup and went on loan to freshly promoted Frosinone. He’s made the most of the opportunity, to say the least, and everyone from the Premier League’s Newcastle and Aston Villa to Saudi Arabia’s Al-Ittihad to basically every good Bundesliga team has been linked to a future transfer.

Wherever he ends up playing, he’ll be just about the most dangerous player on the pitch.

Backup: Cole Palmer, Chelsea (13.6, third overall)

When Bellingham began his Borussia Dortmund career at age 17, he immediately became one of the most important and composed players on the pitch for one of the 10-12 best clubs in the world. He was both an elite ball progressor and vital fire extinguisher, but he wasn’t doing elite work in the attacking third just yet.

As BVB youth coach Otto Addo told me before the 2022-23 season, “Maybe it sounds funny, but still there’s room to improve. Defensively, he’s doing very, very well. Offensively, we show him a lot of clips where he could have scored a goal, but he’s a brilliant player. Surely he can sometimes be more efficient up front, but for a midfielder to create this amount of chances is very, very huge.”

That season, things began to click into place up front. After combining six goals with 13 assists in all competitions in 2021-22, Bellingham flipped that around to 14 goals and six assists in 2022-23. And in his first season at Real Madrid, he has already combined 20 goals and nine assists.

The trajectory of Bellingham’s production is jarring.

(Source: TruMedia)

Bellingham continues to collect skills. He’s now an elite midfielder and elite attacker. And he won’t turn 21 until the summer’s Euros are already underway.

Backup: Jamal Musiala, Bayern Munich (11.2)

In terms of raw xG+xPVA production, we now see a pretty big drop-off as we move to the midfield. While Ilkay Gundogan (11.8), Martin Odegaard (11.5) and Hakan Calhanoglu (11.3) have still put together impressive production by this measure, the 21-and-under crowd has mostly struggled, though with a proper number of minutes, Barcelona’s Pedri would have likely produced Odegaard-ian numbers.

Still, it must be noted just how impressive Fermin Lopez’s production has been. Pedri’s combined xG+xPVA this season is 4.8 in 1,099 league minutes. Lopez has topped that in just 874 minutes.

A lot of that has come from his Gundogan-level ability to show up in the box at just the right time — he’s scored three goals from shots worth 4.4 xG, levels that would be impressive for an attacker, much less a midfielder — but he’s also a relentless presser, and he’s taking what he’s given in a very Barcelona way. When he can win a take-on, he tries it. When he can put a shot on target, he takes it.

(Source: TruMedia)

Lopez isn’t a complete player yet, and he hasn’t played a full 90 minutes in LaLiga all season — he has started in only seven of his 22 league appearances, and his 81 minutes against Atletico Madrid last Sunday were his most all season. But in the absence of Pedri, Gavi and other occasionally injured Barcelona stars, he has gotten random chances to prove himself, and he’s taken advantage.

Backup: Rocco Reitz, Borussia Monchengladbach (5.3)

The further we get from goal, the more difficult it is to eyeball the statistics and figure out how good a player may be. That’s especially true for a good No. 6, a defensive midfielder whose role is to both extinguish opponent attacks before they get to the back line and pick out proper passes to start his or her own team’s attacks. This is where fun tools like the scouting reports and player similarity lists at FBref.com can come in handy …

… and those tools say very intriguing things about Pape Matar Sarr. His “Similar Players” list at FBRef.com includes dynamite veterans like Real Madrid’s Federico Valverde, Inter’s Nicolò Barella and Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Juventus’ Adrien Rabiot and Barca’s Gundogan, which is rather exciting considering he’s only 21. And his Scouting Report features a whole lot of green.

(Source: FBRef.com. Player is compared to positional peers in Men’s Big 5 Leagues, UCL, UEL over the last 365 days.)

Granted, he’s more of an attack-starter than attack-extinguisher, but he’s a good ball progressor, and his three goals and three assists show that, in moments of chaos and transition, he’s capable of doing damage in the opponent’s box, too. He’s become one of the most important players in Ange Postecoglou’s first Spurs team, and he’s young enough to develop far further than he already has.

Oh, and he’s not the only Angeball specialist on this list either…

Backup: Eric Martel, Koln (3.9)

A modern fullback is required to provide quite a bit of value in the ball progression department, and some — Trippier, Liverpool’s Trent Alexander-Arnold, Napoli’s Giovanni Di Lorenzo, RB Leipzig’s David Raum — have proven particularly adept at that.

Udogie isn’t quite at that level yet, but one can see pretty well how an xPVA type of model might highlight the value of his game.

(Source: TruMedia. Red indicates incomplete passes, green indicates complete passes)

Udogie’s “Similar Players” list (Barcelona’s João Cancelo, Bayern’s Noussair Mazraoui and Alphonso Davies) hints at attacking quality, as do his two goals and three assists, but he’s one of only three fullbacks, of any age, in the Big Five leagues with at least five combined goals and assists and at least 340 defensive interventions. The two others: Fulham’s Antonee Robinson … and Spurs teammate Pedro Porro.

Despite what seemed to be a rebuilding season given the arrival of a new coach, with a new style, and no Harry Kane up front, Spurs currently have about an 80% chance of playing in the Champions League next season, per Opta’s power ratings: They have a 47% chance of finishing in the top four, plus a 41% chance of finishing fifth (and there’s an 84% chance of England earning an extra Champions League berth).

While the stars up front — Son Heung-Min, Richarlison & Co. — have had a lot to do with that, the Sarr-Udogie-Porro combination has provided quite an engine for ball control and plain old hustle.

Backup: Bradley Lock, Brest (3.7)

The pool of options for young central defenders is pretty shallow in the Big Five leagues: Of the 601 players to record at least 100 minutes there this season, only 68 are 21 or younger. Combine that with the fact that this xG+xPVA calculation is so offense-friendly, and it might not tell a great story about center-backs.

Or it might! Touré and Zabarnyi have both been excellent in two distinct departments this year. Both have been heavily trusted in buildup play, and as they play for the 15th-place team in France and the 13th-place team in England respectively, both have been asked to make loads of defensive interventions, too.

(Source: TruMedia)

The towering, 6-foot-8 Toure has had an awfully busy career for a player still a week shy of his 21st birthday. Just within the last two years he has moved from Le Havre to Marseille to Lorient, with a loan to Auxerre, and after holding his own with Auxerre he seems to have taken a nice few steps forward with Lorient. (And in an upset, his lone goal this season came off of a foot, not on a set-piece header.)

Zabarnyi, meanwhile, was thrown into the deep end of the pool and has mostly stayed above water. Bournemouth has allowed 52 goals this season, fifth-most in the Premier League, but opponents are starting only 7.3% of possessions in the attacking third — a sign of decent buildup play — and Bournemouth has allowed only one goal from counter-attacks as well, tied for fewest in the league. Zabarynyi has the most defensive interventions, touches, progressive carries and progressive passes on the team. He’s doing his job with aplomb.

Backups: Murillo, Nottingham Forest (3.2), and Giorgio Scalvini, Atalanta (3.2)

Outside of attackers or attacking midfielders like Bellingham, Couto has produced more combined xG and xPVA than any 21-and-under player in the Big Five. And like Toure and Zabarnyi, he’s providing loads of value in terms of both interventions and ball progression. Look at how unique his ball recovery and progressive carry totals are:

(Source: TruMedia)

Granted, calling Couto a fullback is a bit of a reach. Of the 1,813 LaLiga minutes he’s recorded this season, only 1,078 have come at right back (as classified by StatsPerform), while 545 have come as a wide midfielder or wingback and 181 came as right winger or right attacking midfielder. It makes sense, then, that his creation numbers — seven league assists from 25 chances created, plus 285 progressive carries — are almost too impressive to come from a fullback. But he collects loose balls, and he creates magic in attack for one of Europe’s most surprising teams.

Couto moved from Brazil’s Coritiba to Manchester City in 2020, aged 18. He’s now spent one season on loan at Braga and is wrapping up his third on loan with Girona, City’s sister club. He has been linked to a Real Madrid move this summer, but he could be closer than ever to breaking the City lineup as well.

It’s funny how your options open wide when you become one of the best fullbacks(ish) in Europe at age 21.

Backup: Tiago Santos, Lille (4.7)