First Hertha, then Europe?

Jubelszene eines Tores gegen den 1. FC Köln.

The Bundesliga is in the home straight of the 2022/23 season, with the final round of fixtures on Matchday 34 all kicking off at 15:30 CEST on Saturday. VfL Wolfsburg have their sights set on UEFA Europa League qualification when they host a Hertha BSC side whose relegation was confirmed last weekend.

Ahead of the final matchday there is always a variety of possible permutations. Ordinarily, the top four teams all qualify for the Champions League, fifth place goes into the Europa League and the team in sixth earns a spot in the Europa Conference League play-offs. However, things will not necessarily be quite that simple this season.

As Eintracht Frankfurt and Leipzig will contest the DFB Cup final, matters in the top third of the table become slightly more complicated. Leipzig’s 3-1 win at Bayern Munich on Saturday ensured them a place in the Champions League, so if they defend their DFB Cup crown on 3 June then the sixth-placed finisher in the Bundesliga would go into the Europa League, with seventh taking the Europa Conference League play-off spot.

Going into the last matchday of the season, Wolfsburg, Leverkusen and Frankfurt are all vying for European qualification as they respectively play against Hertha, Bochum and Freiburg. If Frankfurt win the DFB Cup then that would guarantee their participation in the Europa League. In such a scenario, the team ending up in sixth place would get the Europa Conference League ticket but the team in seventh would be left empty handed – unless Frankfurt themselves finish in sixth (see scenario 2 below).

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